Last Saturday’s slate of college football disappointed many of us, coming just short of delivering a truly historic day of upsets. Disappointment aside, the results provided substantial movement in the playoff picture while allowing the handful of elite teams at the top to separate themselves from the pack.
Texas A&M went down by 27 hosting South Carolina and retook the lead remarkably fast. It looked like SC had no desire to win that game in the second half. Northwestern was up late on Michigan and a few late defensive lapses in pass defense saw them squander that game away. Iowa had USC on the ropes, going up 21-10 in the first half with passing, rushing and receiving catches from Mark Gronowski. They made the mistake of laying back on their defense and USC was all over them, that game also slipped away quickly for the underdog.
A&M, Michigan and USC all could have dropped in the rankings but their victories reinforced the log jam around the bubble playoff spots making things even more difficult for the BYUs and Utahs of the world.
This shakeup in the top 12 taken into account with the criteria the committee has laid out and will likely retract after this season, most teams we’ll see in the CFP are set in stone but there will be two or three decisions made by the committee that will inevitably come with backlash, not unlike Florida State in 2023.
Week 12 Winners:
The SEC added another team to the playoff fold. OU took down Alabama in Tuscaloosa in a contest that meant much more to the Sooners who could finish 10-2 and get into the playoff along with Georgia, Ole Miss, Texas A&M and Alabama. Tennessee and Vandy also have a pulse
Texas A&M’s kicker missed two first half field goals as the Aggies went down big to South Carolina. Luckily for him they pulled up the schools biggest come from behind win in history and all was forgiven.
The Big 12 has three teams in the top 12 in the committee’s latest rankings. It’s unlikely all three get in but it’s a relief for fans in the nation’s heartland that if your team plays good football, they’ll be at the very least entertained by the selection show.
Notre Dame secured a ranked win at Pitt which was never close and will be inflated by the committee in terms of difficulty. The Irish have a chance to finish 10-2 with no conference championship game. Until further notice, you can pencil them in as the nine or ten seed come postseason.
Losers:
South Carolina was up 30-3 at halftime at Texas A&M. Shane Beamer gave a glowing interview to the sideline reporter going into the half and their lead evaporated with ten minutes to go in the fourth quarter. Lanoris Sellers was shaky in the first half and absolutely brutal in the second. Once Nyck Harbor came out of the game, the ball simply had nowhere to go. One second half field goal gets you your program’s best win in over a decade and they just couldn’t find a way. At halftime the broadcast showed a SC fan mouthing, “this is the best day of my life.” Ouch. Shane Beamer will not be coaching there next season.
Utah had a clear path to jump Texas and OU as they traveled to Georgia and Alabama respectively. Assuming both teams would take their third loss of the season, the 10-2 Utes would have a legit case to be selected. OU had other plans, upsetting Alabama on the road and jumping up to #8 well Bama falls to #10, both still ahead of Utah who needs every inch it can get.
The way I see it, there are three ways to look at the playoff picture after the committee released their top 25 the other night; you can look at the best 25 teams top to bottom, you can look at the most deserving teams based on record, SOS and quality wins/losses and you can look at who the committee is inevitably going to put in because they fail all tp often to take things like head to head matchups or margin of victory with common opponents into account.
Teams that will get the benefit of the doubt:
Notre Dame has two losses to teams that have looked far from perfect as of late. Their quality wins include USC, Navy and Pitt. USC is a good team and Pitt was a ranked road win although the team itself isn’t a prototypical top 25 team. The case against the Irish getting in would be their soft schedule week three and on combined with their lack of conference championship game; one less chance for them to lose the committee’s favor.
USC has a chance to take down Oregon, bringing them to 9-2 with a top-ten win in Eugene. They would have a signature win identical to Indiana but with losses to Notre Dame and Illinois, both ranked at the time of kickoff. I believe a 10-2 USC team would surpass both BYU and Utah and sneak into the playoff with double digit wins out of the Big Ten.
Oklahoma will likely finish 10-2 with losses to Texas and Ole Miss but with wins over Alabama, Tennessee and Michigan. If they stumble at Mizzou and finish 9-3, I think they committee could justify themselves putting the Sooners in over a two-loss Utah or BYU. OU beating Bama was a disaster for all the two-loss bubble teams.
Teams deserving of a playoff berth but could be left on the outside looking in:
BYU could be edged out by Notre Dame or Miami, who the committee will likely favor, but has the edge over Utah. A win over Cincinnati almost guarantees the Cougars a spot in the top 12 while Utah needs BYU to lose among other chips falling their way if they want to get in without a conference championship appearance.
The crushing loss to Tech hurts but their head to head win vs Utah is critical, even with Utah dismantling every other team in the conference. Winning against the Bearcats eliminates a cannibalistic circle outcome that could be detrimental for all three teams in the end. If the Cougs win out in any fashion, they should absolutely be in over Notre Dame, Miami and USC.
Utah will likely finish the season with ten blowout wins accompanied by two losses to the other Big 12 elite; the only two teams from the conference ranked ahead of them in the polls. Utah has shown they’re a good Big 12 team and can run most teams out of the building but stumbled in their two biggest tests of the season. Ranked No. 12 in the playoff rankings, they’ll likely be forced out by the 5th best conference champion, leaving a ten win operation on the outside looking in. Utah’s key to getting in is to keep dismantling opponents and pray Cincinnati can surprise BYU.
Vanderbilt has a chance to end the season with a win at Tennessee to get them to ten wins on the season. If they can pull this off, I think they’re the most deserving bubble team to get it. Their biggest wins include Mizzou, South Carolina (ranked 11 at the time) and LSU (ranked 10 at the time) while the Texas loss could end up being the nail in the coffin on their season.
My 12 team playoff if it started today:
- Ohio State (BYE)
- Indiana (BYE)
- Texas A&M (BYE)
- Texas Tech (BYE)
(5) Georgia vs (12) JMU*
(6) Oregon vs (11) Alabama
(7) Ole Miss vs (10) BYU
(8) GA Tech vs (9) Oklahoma
*The best five conferences champions secure an automatic berth
First four out: Vanderbilt, Utah, Notre Dame, Miami
My top 25 best teams:
- Ohio State
- Indiana
- Georgia
- Oregon
- Texas Tech
- Texas A&M
- Oklahoma
- Ole Miss
- Alabama
- BYU
- Utah
- Texas
- Miami
- Vanderbilt
- Georgia Tech
- USC
- Notre Dame
- Michigan
- Virginia
- Tennessee
- JMU
- Houston
- North Texas
- Arizona State
- Mizzou